US President Donald Trump was yesterday touting an end to the war in Iran, but declaring mission accomplished in Washington will not spare Australian consumers from the economic fallout of the conflict. 

Even if tankers and cargo start moving through the Strait of Hormuz today, the fact the critical trade route has been closed for about three months means Australian shoppers are still in for one hell of a hangover.

At a time when interest rates and inflation remain stubbornly high, each new data set out of government seems to only compound the angst across the community. Unemployment figures last week showed a rise to 4.5 per cent in April, up 0.2 per cent from the previous month.

While many commentators and politicians have spoken a lot about supply chain disruption as a result of the war, the brutal reality of what that technical phrase means is going to start to play out over the next few months in very stark and confronting terms for households.

This will be particularly tough for those already struggling with the cost of living, and politically dangerous for Labor as this problem creeps up on shoppers through uneven and random price hikes on everything from milk and cheese to grains.

Unlike the immediate impact the conflict had on the price of petrol and diesel, this problem isn’t in neon lights and is not the subject of daily press conferences. It is much more of a sleeper issue, products like nitrogen, sulphur and resin aren’t exactly on most people’s shopping lists.

But they are an essential part of the packaging of many products on shelves, from the plastic tags on bread to yoghurt pots and nappy bags.

A ‘perfect storm’

The Australian Food and Grocery Council has warned we are in a “perfect storm” of global conflict, surging energy costs that mean that food and grocery suppliers and manufacturers can no longer weather soaring production costs alone.

They say that these delays in getting key supplies have led to a fundamental shift in the cost of doing business. 

That is why even a ceasefire today won’t save us from experiencing higher costs between now and October. Manufacturers and suppliers have had to bake in price increases into the supply chain as a result of the conflict and those margins will eventually have to be passed on at the cash register. 

The latest survey from the Food and Grocery Council shows one in five businesses are experiencing a cost increase of more than 20 per cent. Even without a background in commerce or accounting, applying a bit of common sense tells you this will have to be absorbed by consumers. 

The fact that the government can’t intervene and fast-track the recovery from the conflict will be a risk for the government, particularly as it spends political capital not selling its budget, but defending the contentious tax changes that have dominated the media.

If people feel pain every time they leave the house, whether at the bowser, supermarket on top of rent or mortgage payments, those individual pain points will create a perfect storm of despair and defeat, perfect conditions for a populist wreck the joint alternative voice shaking up Canberra.

The rise of One Nation

A poll published late Friday showed One Nation would win as many as 59 seats if an election were held today, pushing Labor deep into minority government and wiping out the Coalition in all but three states and territories.

That’s the worst-case scenario for the major parties in a large-scale analysis of voter intentions conducted by Redbridge Group and Accent Research that underlines the shift in Australian politics since the last election. 

There is so much hypothesising about why this surge in populist supply has occurred, but the evidence is staring at us and it is crystal clear. In fact, the Reserve Bank governor, Michele Bullock, told us and it was blunt. She said Australians are poorer because of the ripple effect on prices from the conflict in the Middle East. 

If Australians are poorer, and they know they are poorer, why would they keep supporting the status quo? What if the cumulative impact of the depletion of their living standards is making them think something else has to be the solution? 

A conflict on the other side of the world pushing up essential items on our supermarket shelves, the government unable to offer a quick fix or outline when this will pass and a population still whip-lashed by COVID. It is easy to understand why people are running out of patience with major parties and feel let down by Canberra.

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‘Vote sprays, Labor stays’

Over the weekend, Federal Opposition Leader Angus Taylor warned Victorian Liberals that “if the vote sprays, Labor stays”, urging the party to unite behind its leader Jess Wilson ahead of November’s state election. This is a formulation and slogan you will hear over and over and over as the Liberal leader warns against Australians voting for One Nation. 

But privately, his colleagues have told me the message is meaningless. One MP told me that the idea of a vote “spraying” requires a level of political literacy that is beyond the way most people think about voting. But it isn’t stopping the leader from using it. 

Taylor’s strategy of pinning his hopes on convincing people to think about preference flows when they are grumpy with major parties demonstrates exactly why the Coalition is losing voters.

People struggling with cost-of-living pressures and pissed off with what they feel to be the circus in Canberra aren’t going to rush back to the Liberals because of a pitch that is at best academic and at worst, tone deaf.

Even if America does strike a deal with Iran to end the conflict, Australian households will still be left dealing with higher prices at the shops. Unless there is a major pivot from the major parties, voters will continue to feel more and more like Canberra either doesn’t listen or doesn’t care.

Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.