Iran hits US in Jordan, US-Saudi strikes on Iraq: Is war spreading?

Iran has fired several ballistic missiles at United States military installations in Jordan, and the US has confirmed it has intercepted a “surprise attack” on its forces in the Middle East.

Also on Wednesday morning, the US and Saudi Arabia launched attacks on Iran-backed groups in Iraq.

It is unclear whether Iran’s attack on Jordan happened before or after the US-Saudi attack on Iraq. A statement from the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) did not clarify which incident happened first.

Here is a closer look at what happened, and whether this means the war is spreading:

What happened?

Early on Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had fired multiple ballistic missiles at US military installations in Jordan. The US confirmed it had intercepted a “surprise” attack.

CENTCOM, the IRGC and Jordanian authorities have yet to reveal exactly which military sites and assets were targeted in Jordan.

Also on Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence said its armed forces, in coordination with CENTCOM, had conducted attacks against Iran-backed groups in Iraq after drone attacks on Saudi petroleum facilities. CENTCOM confirmed it had carried out strikes with Saudi Arabian forces against “Iran-aligned” groups in Iraq which it claimed had attacked US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure on the orders of the IRGC.

Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) said the US-Saudi attacks killed at least 20 of its fighters and wounded 32 in seven provinces. The PMF is an umbrella group for armed groups in Iraq, some of which are loyal to Iran.

The attacks hit PMF positions in the provinces of Baghdad, Wasit, Nineveh, Basra, Kirkuk, Karbala and Diyala, the state-sanctioned umbrella group of mostly Shia groups said in a statement.

The PMF said the casualty figures were preliminary and could rise once field assessments were completed.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi called an emergency meeting of the Ministerial Council for National Security on Wednesday after the US-Saudi attacks.

Why did the US and Saudi Arabia attack Iraq?

The US and Saudi Arabia justified their attacks on Iraq by claiming Iran was responsible for recent drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities apparently launched from Iraqi territory.

The US and Saudi Arabia said Iran-aligned groups in Iraq carried out “30 IRGC-directed” drone attacks in 72 hours.

The accusation prompted a warning by an unnamed Iranian defence official via the state broadcaster, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), that blaming Iran for such attacks was a “major miscalculation”.

Al-Zaidi has already ordered Iraqi security agencies to investigate the drone attacks and is expected to travel to Saudi Arabia on Thursday.

However, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a self-described armed resistance group backed by Iran, denied any role in the attacks on Saudi Arabia.

It said Saudi claims were “fabrications” and “any foolish Saudi action will be met with a harsh response”.

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the United Kingdom-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera that Iran, the US and Gulf states are trying to balance military action with diplomacy.

“We saw reports yesterday that Oman has put forward a proposal to Iran on voluntary tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, which could be interpreted as a concession to Tehran,” she said.

“On the same day, [Israeli] Prime Minister Netanyahu was at the White House. So diplomacy is continuing, but military pressure remains very much part of the picture.”

Why did Iran attack Jordan?

Iran’s latest attack on Jordan follows its pattern of targeting US military assets and infrastructure in Gulf countries, which it has been doing since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28.

While it has not been revealed which military sites and assets were targeted in Jordan, the country is known to host about 4,000 US soldiers who are stationed there, according to a 2026 US Congressional Research Service report.

Some of these service members are based at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in northeastern Jordan. The King Faisal Air Base is a Jordanian base at which US soldiers also maintain a presence while Tower 22 is a remote US military logistics outpost in northeastern Jordan near the borders with Syria and Iraq.

On Wednesday, Iran said it had struck US assets in Jordan in response to “aggressive actions” by the US military, according to an IRGC statement carried by the IRNA news agency.

“Iran’s strikes on Jordan last night show that Tehran still believes deterrence is achieved through proactive military action,” Ozcelik said. “Reports that US interceptor stockpiles have been running low may also have shaped calculations in the IRGC.

“More broadly, there is a strong sense within the Iranian leadership that it is engaged in an existential struggle and that putting pressure on the Trump administration remains an important objective.”

Could the war spread?

Fearing that the conflict could spread, Middle East and other countries are trying to de-escalate the situation.

The conflict has already spilled over to the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have announced a blockade and targeted Saudi‑flagged ships, and to the Caspian Sea, where Ukraine said on Saturday that it had hit vessels carrying Iranian‑linked military cargo.

Experts fear, therefore, that the war is increasingly overlapping with other conflicts, including the one in Ukraine, and risks dragging Saudi Arabia and other regional powers deeper into the fighting.

Pakistan’s ambassador to the United Nations, Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, expressed concern over the escalating tensions in the Middle East and urged all sides to “uphold their commitments” under the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Iran and the US last month, which supposedly cleared the way for 60 days of negotiations but has already been broken by bouts of fighting.

Addressing the UN Security Council on Tuesday, Ahmad also condemned attacks on Saudi Arabia and on commercial ships, stating that Pakistan, which has been mediating US-Iran talks, is “deeply concerned over attempts to drag” the kingdom into the wider conflict. He expressed support for Saudi security, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud spoke by phone on Wednesday with his counterparts in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, during which the ministers “stressed the importance of continuing efforts to de-escalate tensions”, according to his office.

The ministers also stressed the importance of safeguarding “freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait” to help mitigate the security and economic fallout of the crisis.

They condemned attacks by Iran and “its affiliated militias in Iraq and Yemen” and emphasised continued coordination and stronger joint action through the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said on Wednesday that she had discussed the situation in the Gulf as well as Iran’s support for Russia during a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

“In the Gulf, the reprieve from fighting can buy mediators time to find a way back to diplomacy and prevent a return to full-scale war,” Kallas said in a post on X.

Ozcelik said the most likely scenario is a continuation of tit-for-tat military strikes between Iran and the US while diplomatic efforts, with the engagement of Gulf states, continue in parallel.

“Both sides will eventually need a negotiated return to the now faltering MOU that they can present domestically as a defensible outcome,” she said.

“The real danger is that this settles into a prolonged period of sustained confrontation, where regular military exchanges become the norm rather than the exception. The moment to watch for is a direct attack that prompts a collective Gulf military response against Iran, as well as the threat that the Houthis escalate in the Bab al-Mandeb.”