Angry at a political system they feel is broken and unfair, the voters of Farrer walked into polling booths ready to inflict electoral pain.

The absence of a Labor candidate on the ballot paper to punish the Albanese government by proxy mattered little.

For this regional NSW electorate has known nothing but Coalition representation for its entire history, including the last 25 years as a Liberal stronghold.

And it was the Liberals who therefore copped the lion’s share of the punishment.

One Nation’s run at Farrer was a “bit of a free kick”, Nationals leader Matt Canavan observed shortly after the polls closed on Saturday night.

A few hours later one had to wonder if it would even have mattered if the minor party’s opponents had bothered to pull on their cleats, let alone run onto the field.

A shift away from the major parties

Anti-major party sentiment is essentially the most bankable phenomenon in Australian politics right now.

Its effect is diluted in different ways across the country thanks to compulsory preferential voting, but when the conditions allow it can be very potent.

The Liberals learned this in 2022 when a raft of inner-city MPs were swept out of parliament by a wave of so-called teal community independents.

Now, One Nation is touting Farrer as its own blueprint for success in regional areas.

That its main opponent was independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, who was on track to secure about a quarter of first preferences, shows how deep the Liberals’ problems can run.

The by-election on Saturday night delivered Pauline Hanson the result she has been pursuing for almost 30 years.

The Queensland senator is undoubtedly the only reason One Nation candidate David Farley is waking up as the party’s first ever elected federal MP.

Hanson was jubilant as she stood alongside Farley on stage at the Bended Elbow in Albury where party faithful had gathered to celebrate their victory.

“It’s a win for the rest of Australia,” she declared.

Numbers meet Liberal expectations

Just down the road at the Commercial Club, the mood at Liberal HQ was one of resigned acceptance.

Angus Taylor has spent the better part of his first three months as Liberal leader playing down the party’s chances in Farrer.

His supporters on Saturday night were confident he had set the bar at a sufficiently subterranean level so as to avoid personal blowback for the result.

But the fact remains the Liberal Party’s existential crisis has only widened.

After two years haemorrhaging inner city seats to independents and Labor on their left, the party is now completely under siege in the regions and outer suburbs from their right.

For the alternative party of government to have almost no discernible heartland or electoral base goes beyond any usual kind of post-governing rebuilding period.

“For too long we have been a party of convenience, not conviction and that must change,” Taylor said following the result.

Senior Liberal sources said the numbers in Farrer were about as bad as they had expected.

A cold comfort no doubt.

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A divisive preferencing call

The Coalition has less than two years to chip away at One Nation’s primary vote, which according to the public polls is currently in the mid-20s nationally.

As counting continued on Saturday night in Farrer, One Nation’s primary for the seat was hovering in the low-40s.

That is a huge challenge, and one that many Liberals fear will not be beaten without the party engaging in anything short of all-out political warfare.

Others are wary of directly taking on One Nation lest it be interpreted as criticism of the voters who support the party.

This divide was evident in the internal reactions to the Coalition’s decision to preference One Nation above Milthorpe.

The move was described variously by National and Liberal insiders as either strategic pragmatism or a weak folly.

The former because they believed a One Nation MP would be easier to defeat than a rusted-on independent at the 2028 election, the latter for giving any ground at all to an opponent they have fought to keep at bay for almost 30 years.

Others in the Coalition argue the preference situation was more akin to the one that traditionally exists between Labor and the Greens.

“They preference each other but Labor goes pretty hard against the Greens when it needs to win seats,” a Liberal said.

Enter Barnaby Joyce

The idea that Farley will be a more beatable opponent in two years is informed in part by history — cantankerous internal brawling tends to result in One Nation MPs flaming out within a term.

Farley already found himself in hot water during the by-election campaign after making a comment about migration that departed from Hanson’s hardline stance.

This was taken as a sign he was not as aligned with the more extreme views of the populist right-wing Queenslander.

But internal fracturing may not be as reliable as it once was.

Former Nationals leader turned One Nation recruit, Barnaby Joyce, has spent the past six months demonstrating how a more traditional conservative can sidestep associating themselves with Hanson’s harsher edges.

‘Accept the result with humility’

The final word on Saturday night went somewhat unexpectedly to the now retired member for Farrer, Sussan Ley.

Since losing the Liberal leadership to Taylor, Ley has eschewed all public commentary.

In a statement after One Nation’s victory, Ley urged Liberals to “accept the result with humility because the voters never get it wrong”.

“On the day the leadership spilled in February, the new leader said the Liberal Party needed to ‘change or die’,” she said.

“Three months later, the result in Farrer demonstrates that statement to be far truer today than it ever was then.”

After decades of attempts by Hanson to position One Nation as the natural home for conservative Australians, that proposition is looking less like a protest and more like a genuine electoral threat.