UFC Fight Night predictions: Odds, expert picks for Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim fight card

Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim meet at a welterweight crossroads. Muhammad, the former divisional champion, looks to get back to title contention as Bonfim attempts to overtake his spot in the title hunt. It all goes down from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday in the headliner of UFC Fight Night. 

Muhammad (24-5, 1 NC) finds himself in unfamiliar territory. In 2024, he became the welterweight champion and extended one of the division’s longest winning streaks. One year later, he lost the title and suffered consecutive losses for the first time. 

The recurring theme of UFC Fight Nights in the Paramount+ era is established veterans vs. potential rising stars. The trend started with Mario Bautista fending off Vinicius Oliveira, and now sees Muhammad (No. 5) battle Bonfim (No 11). Muhammad doesn’t see this week’s main event through the same lens. Brimming with confidence, Muhammad believes the real victim here is his opponent.

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“I don’t think it’s at my expense. It’s at Bonfim’s expense,” Muhammad told CBS Sports. “I’m the wrong guy to fight. I’m excited to show the world that I’m still the best. I’m still at the top. I have to go out there and show him.”

“I think I have the best cardio in the division. For me, it’s about getting out there and letting loose. Once I let loose, I can go all day.” 

Bonfim (19-1) has the chance to become the next rising welterweight, pushing out the old guard. Muhammad is the last thread in a welterweight top five that’s been taken over by relatively new blood. Bonfim, younger brother of fellow UFC fighter Ismael Bonfim and head coach Odair Bonfim, isn’t worried about Muhammad’s five-round experience. Bonfim asserts that he’ll not only match Muhammad’s pressure, but push the pace despite competing in his first main event.

“Belal messes up other fighters and their rhythm,” Bonfim said through a Portuguese interpreter. “My kicking, movement and quick jabs are key. If he decides to take me down, I can submit him. I will stand up if I need to. I will pressure him every moment.”

This week’s Fight Night has many interesting A-sides. Brendan Allen takes a significant risk staking his No. 4 middleweight position against unranked contender Edmen Shahbazyan. Fares Ziam has the makings of a major player in the lightweight division, Bryce Mitchell continues his rehabilitation and Iwo Barankiewski looks for his fourth consecutive first-round knockout in less than a year.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: June 6 | Start time: 8 p.m. (Main card) | 5 p.m. (Preliminary card)
Location: Meta APEX – Las Vegas
Stream: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as low as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim: Bonfim’s resume buries the lede. The many submissions on his record are not his best weapons, at least not at the UFC level. It’s his kicking game. Bonfim is a fast-twitch athlete with thumping kicks. He knocked out smooth striker Randy Brown with a knee, but Bonfim’s calf kicks are most devastating. Landing them regularly is crucial to stunting Muhammad’s movement and pressure. He’s far more dangerous than Muhammad at range and has a submission game, too. The rising contender has the advantage in most key categories: KO power, submissions, athleticism and youth. I’m still picking against him. Muhammad’s wrestling pressure is unreal. He has very little finishing prowess, but he’s nearly impossible to put away. Muhammad sticks to you like glue, wearing you down with his relentless takedown pursuits. His impeccable submission defense supports this initiative. This style will only got better training with UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov. 

There are two concerns with Bonfim that I cannot ignore: his stamina and deviation from what works. Bonfim’s sole loss came against Nicolas Dalby, an imperfect veteran who can beat world-class fighters on his best day. Dalby struggled in Round 1 before draining Bonfim with pressure in Round 2 to score a TKO. Bonfim has clearly worked on his endurance, and Muhammad can’t strike like Dalby, but I’m concerned about fatigue in a five-rounder. Against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, Bonfim showed the veteran far too much respect. The split decision fight was closer than it should have been. Fighting a former champion in a five-round setting — two firsts for Bonfim — might make him deviate too far from his preferred style if he can’t finish early. Pick: Muhammad via unanimous decision