By The 2025 AFC playoffs featured no Patrick Mahomes for the first time since 2017, no Lamar Jackson for the first time since 2022, the Jaguars for the first time since 2022, the Patriots one year after going 4-13 and Joe Burrow’s continued absence.
Yes, it was a roller-coaster year, and it got even wilder when the Broncos topped Josh Allen’s Bills in overtime — but not before losing Bo Nix to a fractured ankle. A week later, the Patriots slugged past Jarrett Stidham’s Broncos 10-7, becoming the first team ever to make a Super Bowl one year after losing 13+ games.
The NFL has taught us to expect the unexpected, but even 2025 was a bit much. Entering the season, four AFC teams had +2000 or shorter odds to win the Super Bowl. Three of those four didn’t make the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Patriots were one of the league’s great success stories, and they weren’t alone. The Jaguars were arguably the NFL’s best team during the second half of the season. The Broncos were arguably the NFL’s best team, period. The Texans have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. The Chargers have had 11-win seasons in each of their first two seasons under Jim Harbaugh.
So what does the 2026 season have in store? Bounce-back campaigns? Sustained success for last year’s pleasant surprises? Was 2025 the “new normal” or an anomaly? Here’s the team-by-team breakdown.
(NOTE: All odds via DraftKings)
Bounce-back candidates
Chiefs
2025 record: 6-11, missed playoffs
2026 odds: -205 to make playoffs (seventh-shortest in NFL) | O/U 10.5 wins
The Chiefs’ 6-11 record wasn’t just the worst of the Mahomes era; it was also the worst of the Andy Reid era, which dates back to 2013.
The biggest factor in the Chiefs’ favor is Mahomes. He’s expected to be ready to go in Week 1, and he is superb. Over the past two years — Kansas City’s offensive downturn relative to its previous spectacular heights — he’s still seventh in passing success rate and seventh in EPA per play.
One of the biggest issues could be fixed this year. In the past two seasons, Chiefs running backs had 20 explosive rushes (12+ yards), the fewest in the NFL. No other team had fewer than 33. Kenneth Walker III had 22 last year alone, and now he’s a Chief. He could revolutionize what’s been a plodding ground game.
That doesn’t mean it will be a cure-all, though. The Chiefs still have major question marks at wide receiver. Defensively, there’s been significant roster turnover. The Chiefs traded CB Trent McDuffie to the Rams and lost CB Jaylen Watson (Rams), LB Leo Chenal (Commanders), S Bryan Cook (Bengals) and several rotational pieces in free agency. No. 6 overall pick Mansoor Delane will fill one cornerback spot, but the secondary is largely worse, on paper. The best-case scenario is that Delane is a stud immediately, and a revamped defensive line (Khyiris Tonga and rookies Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas surrounding star Chris Jones) can cause havoc.
On one hand, it’s a bit of a reset, given the infusion of youth. On the other hand, the presence of Mahomes alone warrants playoff contender status at worst. In the end, we’ll see a bit of both.
Bounce back or bust: Slight bounce back with a return to the playoffs, but not quite to the top-tier Super Bowl contender status we’ve become used to.
Ravens
2025 record: 8-9, missed playoffs
2026 odds: -390 to make playoffs (second-shortest in NFL) | O/U 11.5 wins
Things feel very, very different in Baltimore, with John Harbaugh out and first-time coach Jesse Minter in. But change can be good, and it might be exactly what this team needs to get over the hump.
Last year’s 8-9 campaign can be chalked up to Jackson’s injury woes, which began in Week 4. He simply wasn’t close to himself, and it showed in 10.7% sack rate, second-worst in the NFL and by far the worst of his career. He was at just 4.6% in 2024. He also posted just 26.8 rushing yards per game, less than half of his 2024 average.
Baltimore hopes new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle can bring out the best in Jackson, and the early returns are encouraging. There’s precedent here, too: Jackson has won MVP every time he’s gotten a new offensive coordinator. The Ravens have questions at interior offensive line, where they hope first-round pick Olaivavega Ioane and free agent John Simpson help mitigate the loss of center Tyler Linderbaum, but this offense can be outstanding if Doyle proves to be another hotshot young offensive mind.
The defense, on paper, is excellent. Minter has been terrific in all his recent stops, and he should help patch over Baltimore’s leaky secondary. Up front, the Ravens signed Trey Hendrickson to boost a poor pass rush, but he’s not alone. Two-time Pro Bowler Nnamdi Madubuike is back from a neck injury, and he, Travis Jones and Calais Campbell make up a strong interior. There are intriguing options on the edge opposite Hendrickson, too.
Bounce back or bust: Major bounce back (assuming Jackson’s health) to top-tier Super Bowl contention again.
Bengals
2025 record: 6-11, missed playoffs
2026 odds: -200 to make playoffs (eighth-shortest in NFL) | O/U 10.5 wins
After the Bengals beat the Ravens in Week 18 of the 2022 season, Joe Burrow said the Bengals’ Super Bowl window was “[his] whole career.”
They haven’t been to the playoffs in any of the three seasons since. That’s in part the defense’s fault — only three teams have allowed more points — but Burrow’s injuries have been a major factor, too. He has played in just 35 of a possible 51 games over the last three years, and the Bengals are 5-11 when he doesn’t start.
Burrow’s been open in his frustration with the defensive side of things in the past but praised the team for its investments this offseason: DLs Dexter Lawrence (traded for the No. 10 overall pick) and Jonathan Allen, EDGEs Boye Mafe and Cashius Howell and safety Bryan Cook, among others.
Is it enough? The offense is undeniably elite when Burrow plays, so getting the defense to even mediocre rather than basement floor would give Cincinnati a more stable footing. The Bengals have lost seven games when scoring 30+ points over the past three seasons; no other team has lost more than four such games. A healthy Burrow plus an improved defense is an easy formula.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Can Burrow stay healthy? And even if he does, is it enough? He was for all of 2024, and the Bengals only went 9-8. Cincinnati still has holes at linebacker and questions at EDGE. The secondary has some nice pieces, but has yet to put them together. Perhaps Year 2 under Al Golden will bring improvement, but on paper, this defense is still a step or two behind.
Bounce back or bust: Bounce back to contending for a playoff spot, with an offense to make noise if the team makes it.
Which teams fall off?
If we’re saying three teams will bounce back, with two back in the postseason and one at least competing for it, some teams must fall off.
Let’s first eliminate a few from the “bust” list.
- Josh Allen is not only the ultimate ceiling raiser but also brings a tremendous floor because of his rushing and durability. The Bills have won double-digit games seven straight years, and they will make it eight.
- We are bullish on the Texans for their all-world defense. C.J. Stroud figures to get back on track thanks to projected improvements at offensive line and running back, and perhaps wide receiver, too.
- The Broncos can lean on their defense, too, and Sean Payton — though he’s handed off play-calling to Davis Webb — is terrific on the offensive side of the ball.
- Drake Maye’s ascent last year projects well for the future. Add in A.J. Brown and significant defensive investments, and this should be a playoff team.
That leaves …
Chargers
The Chargers might have gotten the biggest non-head coach coaching upgrade of the offseason in offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Having cornerstone tackles back Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt should help, too, after last year’s offensive line misery.
But we must admit there is a major stylistic change here. Justin Herbert has long been a hang-in-the-pocket player who wants to push the ball downfield. I am bullish on the pairing working, but there might be some growing pains early, and that could be costly in a strong AFC West.
There’s also the defensive side of the ball. Minter worked wonders with this group. Can Chris O’Leary do the same? He has been an NFL coach for one year, as the Chargers’ safeties coach in 2024. O’Leary did a nice job at Western Michigan last year, but that’s a far cry from the NFL. If John Harbaugh deems him ready, though, I’m willing to do the same.
Verdict: Should still be a playoff team as long McDaniel and Herbert mesh. O’Leary must deliver.
Jaguars
Do you believe the Jaguars are the team from the first 10 weeks (5-4 record, 25th in yards per play) or the last eight weeks (8-0 record, seventh in yards per play)?
The answer is likely somewhere in the middle. Trevor Lawrence went on an absolute heater down the stretch, with improved decision making, downfield passing and the addition of Jakobi Meyers playing big roles.
But the Jaguars had an iffy offseason at best. They lost RB Travis Etienne and breakout star LB Devin Lloyd in free agency. They took a blocking tight end with their only top-80 pick.
A lot hinges on Lawrence, an up-and-down offensive line, a turnover-happy defense (without its best player from last year) and Travis Hunter. That’s a lot of questions.
Verdict: Battling for a playoff spot.
Steelers
The Steelers made the playoffs in a very Steelers way last year: winning the division on a Ravens missed field goal. They promptly got blasted in a wild-card game, as has been the modus operandi for nearly the past decade. That’s why they moved on from Mike Tomlin.
Could these Steelers be slightly better? Sure. But if Burrow and Jackson are healthy, they are going to be a lot better, not just slightly better. The Pittsburgh defense should be quite good, but there are major issues on offense, which was 25th in yards per game last year. Aaron Rodgers was 26th in passing success rate. He wants the ball out of his hands immediately and has lost almost all of his escapability. It’s a low-ceiling operation, which isn’t good, considering how many high-ceiling attacks are projected to compete with them.
Verdict: Battling for a playoff spot but coming up short.
Originally published on www.cbssports.com — View original